Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Headed for Losses

TTF is trending lower today, despite a surge in the afternoon and briefly trading in positive territory. An easing of short-term supply disruptions, the return of higher Israeli flows to Egypt and recovered feedgas flows into Freeport are providing downside.

• TTF DEC 23 down -0.7% at 47.55€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -0.1% at 49.35€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe remain above normal this week with a small dip back to normal later in the week. The second week of the outlook suggests near normal temperatures.
• Israel’s pipeline natural gas flows to Egypt are expected to reach pre-war levels – 800mcm/d – by early next week, following the resumption of output of Chevron’s 10bcm/yr Tamar gas field according to a person familiar with Egyptian imports.
• Eni said on Tuesday it expects Egyptian LNG exports to resume in December, possibly January.
• An ENI chartered LNG tanker that arrived in Egypt earlier this month thought to be importing into the country was there to remove gas from a floating LNG import terminal according to Cristian Signoretto at Eni.
• Pipeline natural gas deliveries to the Freeport LNG plant resumed close to normal operating levels on Tuesday, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF, following a decline in power to the facility.
• Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is today back up to 337.9mcm/d with only small outages at Oseberg, Gullfaks and Kårstø this week.
• Unite the union confirmed on Tuesday that around 150 Kaefer maintenance and repair contractors at the Mossmorran NGL plant and the St Fergus gas terminal have backed strike action, resulting in a week-long strike action from 27 November to 4 December.
• European natural gas storage was back up to 99.49% full on Nov 12 according to GIE data after a return to small net injections over the weekend.
• The natural gas market will find a new equilibrium after 2025-2026 as a wave of new production projects will come online, which will make prices more affordable for demand to pick up, Cristian Signoretto, deputy COO of natural resources at Eni, said.
• European LNG sendout was holding just below levels seen this time last year at 432mcm/d on 12 Nov with an average of 408mcm/d so far in November.
• Global weekly LNG imports totaled 7.8mn tons on 6-12 November, down by 9% week on week, driven by less purchases from North Asia, BNEF data showed.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased again in the last week by 6.3% to 4.84mn tons as of 12 November, according to Bloomberg estimates. This was up from 4.55mn tons the prior week.
• Wood Mackenzie expects LNG consumption will peak in 2045 under a net-zero scenario with natural gas demand to remain resilient through the energy transition according to Bloomberg.
• LNG deliveries to Europe and Turkey increased 14% on the week to reach the highest since 22 May at nearly 3.7bcm according to Kpler data via Montel.
• The LNG market will continue to experience volatility until new supply is available, but prices are reasonable compared to 2022 according to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne.
• The EU needs to end the current winter with a "big buffer" of gas in storage to help prepare for the following winter according to Paula Pinho, energy security director at the EC's energy directorate via S%P Global.