Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Removes Some Gains

TTF front month continues to trade higher but removed some of the earlier gains that were driven by forecasts for cooler weather in Europe and concerns for LNG supply disruptions due to Middle East tensions.

• TTF DEC 23 up 1.5% at 45.76€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 1.2% at 47.17€/MWh
• A Tokyo-based but Israeli owned vehicle carrier vessel was reported to have been seized in the southern part of the Red Sea on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, stoking fears of vessel disruption as Hamas-Israeli tensions remain high.
• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to cool by the end of the week with the risk of below normal into next week and at the start of December.
• Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is up at the highest since 2020 at 352.6mcm/d today compared to an average of 338mcm/d over the previous week. Works at the St. Fergus gas terminal have been extended until 28 November, from 22 November previously.
• European natural gas storage is still high up at 98.94% full on Nov 18 after smaller than normal withdrawals according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 88.6%.
• Russia’s Gazprom and Venezuela’s PDVSA are discussing co-operation in new gas projects in Venezuela according to Russian news agency RIA.
• Venezuela is nearing to approve a license for Shell and the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago to develop the Dragon gas field, which would add initial volumes of 300mc/d for Trinidad’s LNG production from 2026, sources told Reuters.
• European LNG sendout was up at 447mcm/d on 17 Nov with supplies the NW Europe at the top of the five year range and in line with volumes seen this time last year.
• The share of LNG in Europe’s total gas supply is forecast to average more than a third to 2026 according to Montel citing IEA.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in January 2024, February 2024 and March 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 up 0.1$/mmbtu at 2.66$/mmbtu