Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rising on Week

TTF is heading for a net gain of around 12.75% on the week. A small outage at Troll, higher storage withdrawals, and forecasts of slightly cooler weather into the second week of March have provided upside.

• TTF APR 24 up 4.1% at 25.88€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 3.6% at 26.25€/MWh
• Temperatures in most of Europe are set to remain mild into early March to limit end of winter season heating demand but temperatures could cool back to near normal in the second week of the outlook.
• European gas storage was up at 62.78% full according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five-year average of 46.0% amid near normal withdrawal rates this week.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 337.1mcm/d with the return of Skarv from an outage but with unplanned process problems at Troll reducing capacity by 8mcm/d today.
• European LNG sendout was at 372mcm/d on Feb.28 and slightly above the average of 365mcm/d seen over the previous week according to Bloomberg.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today the highest since early Feb at 59.5m/d.
• The USA continues to dominate the European LNG import market share, according to Platts.
• China’s LNG imports for February jumped to a seasonal high - helped by weaker prices.
• Spot charter rates for the global LNG carrier fleet decreased this week despite the rise in European and Asian prices on the week.
• Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG has ‘potential’ for a final investment decision in late 2024 according to Technip Energies CEO, Arnaud Pieton.