Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Slides to Lowest Since 9 October

TTF front month has fallen to the lowest since Oct 9 when prices spiked amid rising concerns over Middle East supplies. Steady supplies and lower demand due to milder weather has weighed on prices as well as the latest progress for the release of hostages which helped to ease supply risks.

• TTF DEC 23 down -3.9% at 44.04€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -3.9% at 45.28€/MWh
• Goldman Sachs has lowered the TTF forecast for the balance of winter from 47€/MWh to 43€/MWh amid easing gas supply balances. Natural gas supply balances in Europe are better than expected in early winter due to higher renewable generation and household conservation efforts.
• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to cool by the end of the week with the risk of below normal into next week and at the start of December.
• Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is holding at the high of the year at 353.0mcm/d today.
• European natural gas storage was back up slightly to 99.0% full on Nov 19 after small injections on the day according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 88.3%.
• European LNG sendout fell back below levels from last year to 379mcm/d on Nov 19 according to Bloomberg from an average of around 430mcm/d last week.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days fell by 9.6% over the last week to 4.21mn tons as of 19 November, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Floating LNG storage off European costs is falling to around five vessels this week, down from 13 a week ago according to ICIS Analyst Alex Froley.
• Global LNG imports increased by 16% on the week to 9mn tons during 13-19 November, driven by higher imports into JKCT according to BNEF.
• The recent jump in US natural gas production is expected to drop off relatively quickly caused by a combination of flush production and drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) coming online according to Wood Mackenzie.