Gas Summary: TTF Sheds Gains

TTF has removed yesterday’s gains amid a small increase in Norwegian piped gas supplies to Europe, healthy storage levels and lower industrial demand, offsetting small outage extensions to the Norwegian Troll gas field and lower LNG flows.

• TTF SEP 23 down -5% at 28.95€/MWh
• The premium of Q1 2024 over Sep23 is edging back up today to 19.85€/MWh with the falling front month price after seeing a steady decline from a high of 25.15€/MWh on 19 July down to a low of 18.3€/MWh earlier today.
• The spread Win 24 - Win 23 TTF spread is however holding steady this week around 6.75€/MWh with ongoing supply risks beyond this winter with no significant increase in global LNG supplies expected until 2025 and beyond. Low stocks in the spring could pressure supplies next summer heading into Win24.
• The decline in the premium of the upcoming winter over the front month suggests a slight easing of the security of supply concerns with European storage levels already over 86% full. Industrial demand remains low but the risk of cold weather over the winter months and competition for LNG supplies from a recovery in Asia are both still upside risks.
• TTF WIN 23 down -2% at 44.76€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.6% at 47.6€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down -1.2% at 51.62€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are slightly higher today 312.3mcm/d. The start of a second round of annual maintenance at Norwegian gas facilities is limiting natural gas supplies to Europe. The Troll field added another unplanned outage on 4-5 August. Several gas terminals and fields in the UK are also undergoing yearly maintenance. The return of the Greater Britannia field has been delayed by one day until 5 Aug.
• LNG sendout to Europe is still below levels seen this time last year having averaged just over 300mcm/d in the last week and down from around 333mcm/d in July. Competition for LNG supplies remains an additional risk amid falling supplies into Europe, although the strength in European gas prices has driven the front month JKM-TTF spread down from about +2.9$/mmbtu last week back to +1$/bbl.
• The high premium of Dutch & German gas prices over west European gas prices (UK, French & Spanish) seen last year has not been repeated this year due to central Europe's increased ability to access LNG imports according to ICIS.