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Gasoline Outlook Bearish After Poor Start to Summer: Platts

OIL PRODUCTS

Traders have an increasingly bearish outlook for gasoline during the peak summer driving season, barring an extreme supply shock, according to Platts Oil Market Podcast.

  • Summer driving season typically boosts gasoline demand, leading to a pretty steep market structure and stronger crack spreads. However, this year has been very different, Platts said.
  • In 2023, the front month time spread was around a $25/b backwardation, while gasoline cracks were in the low $20/b range. However, gasoline has flipped into contango, and cracks are in the low teens, Platts added.
  • Two months ago, traders had high expectations for a strong recovery in gasoline, but such optimism has now evaporated as the season started with disappointment.
  • While demand has lagged pre-pandemic levels, the real driver has been refineries ramping up following a return from a heavy maintenance season. This has caused stocks to really jump in the ARA and in PADD 1.
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