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MNI Credit Weekly: Le Vendredi Noir
GBP/USD Dips Continue to Draw Demand
- GBP was already on the rise Tuesday when the easing in UST yields provided GBP/USD's recovery an added boost which pushed it up to $1.3900 in Europe, NY taking it on to $1.3925 before momentum faded.
- Rate met support at $1.3881 on the pullback. Another look above $1.3900 struggled to gain a foot hold before closing at $1.3888.
- Move Tuesday aided by a move back into risk which saw an easing in UST yields, equities saw a sharp bounce in tech stocks, with the US $1.9tln fiscal package to be voted on today, early enough to be signed into law later Wednesday.
- UST yields performed a mild recovery in Asia but prompted USD demand which took GBP/USD back below $1.3880, met some support ahead of $1.3860 before posting a low of $1.3846. Rate has since recovered to $1.3870 into Europe.
- EUR/GBP, which saw an extended low of Gbp0.8550 in NY Tuesday, recovered to Gbp0.8570 into the close but remains well below its key 10-dma (current Gbp0.8621) which keeps outlook bearish(GBP supportive).
- Support $1.3835(61.8% 1.3779-1.3925), $1.3813/12(76.4%/rising support Dec21) ahead of $1.3800 then $1.3779.
- Resistance $1.3900/05, $1.3925/26(Mar09 high/61.8% 1.4017-1.3779) ahead of $1.3961(76.4%)
- A light calendar in the UK Wednesday. Focus on US CPI 1330GMT and US 10-yr note auction at1800GMT (30-yr Mar11).
- MNI Techs: Cable continues to consolidate. The outlook though remains bearish. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and a number of near-term support levels. The focus is on $1.3768 next, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would leave the key bull channel support at $1.3730 exposed. The channel is drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and a break would represent an important short-term reversal. Firm resistance is $1.4017, Mar 4 high.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.