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GDP Broadly In Line, GoC Rally Trimmed

CANADA DATA
  • Monthly GDP was broadly as expected in December at 0% M/M following six consecutive months of growth.
  • The flash release for January is up +0.2% M/M as Omicron-restrictions weigh. Growth across a range of sectors is seen to be offset by notable decreases in manufacturing, mining and, unsurprisingly, client-facing and air transportation services.
  • It won’t change the BOC outlook at tomorrow’s decision but sees some market reaction after earlier large moves, especially in rates/yield space.
  • FI: GoC yields trim what were large gains prior to the release, up 2bp in the short-end and 3bps at the longer end, but are still down heavily on the day with the front-end to belly down -6bps, 10Y -3.5bps and very long end -2bps.
  • FX: USDCAD also trimmed earlier gains in what’s a relatively narrow session range. It’s back close to where it started the day at 1.2675, having earlier cleared initial support of 1.2660 (Feb 28 low) before rising to 1.2694 prior to the release.

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