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GDP Data Expected To Confirm Weak Economic Activity

CHILE
  • Chile is set to announce its second quarter GDP and current account balance today at 1330BST/0830ET. According to a Bloomberg survey, the prevailing market consensus indicates that the upcoming growth data will be less favourable than prior figures, in line with weak monthly activity data in the period. Commerce should account for most of the negative result with manufacturing and mining also contributing.
    • Q2 GDP Q/q, est. -0.6%, prior 0.8%
    • Q2 GDP Y/y, est. -1.4%, prior -0.6%
    • Q2 Current Acc. Balance, est.-$1.55b, prior $752m
  • On Thursday, USDCLP closed just below recent trend highs, despite some initial pressure earlier in the session. With the release of the data today, markets will be closely observing whether the prevailing trend of Peso depreciation, which has been underpinned since the first BCCh rate cut, will continue.
  • A notable level to monitor to the upside is on 886.62, the 50% retracement of the Sep 26’22 – Feb 3 bear leg and support to watch is 847.66, the 20-day EMA.
  • Chile’s calendar remains very light next week, with July producer prices the only data point of note.
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