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GDP Expected to Slow as Load-Shedding Roils Q2 Growth

SOUTH AFRICA

10 minutes out from the Q2 GDP read for South Africa (last growth release we'll see ahead of the Sep 22nd SARB decision, where further tightening is expected).


Expected to drop 0.8% on the quarter from +1.9% in Q1, but a number of notable analyst forecasts are more pessimistic:

  • HSBC: -1.5%
  • Nedbank: -1.4%
  • StanChart: -1.1%
  • ABSA: -0.9%

Also recall in local press this morning: "the government are reportedly concerned about the impact that power outages had on the economy in Q2, ahead of the official release later today. A presidency spokesperson said "I am worried about tomorrow’s stats. There has been huge load-shedding and we don’t know how it has impacted the economy".

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