German August Stabilises

German front month is broadly stable on the day as lower European gas prices are weighing on power prices, while higher EU carbon allowances are limiting losses. In France, EdF’s 915MW Tricastin 4 reactor works have been further extended by nine days.

• France Base Power AUG 24 down 0.8% at 47 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.1% at 77.7 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.8% at 71.22 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.5% at 33.505 EUR/MWh

• Front month TTF is edging lower today but trading within yesterday’s range after a decline at the start of the week suggesting a reduction in import supply risks as fundamentals remain relatively unchanged.
• EU ETS Dec 24 remained choppy this morning and currently trading higher on the day, extending this week’s gains. The next PL EUA auction will clear today 11:00am CET.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested temperatures have been revised slightly higher at the start of the forecast. Temperatures will remain below normal until 5 July, briefly rise above normal on 6 July, before falling back down. Temperatures from 8 July onwards are forecast to remain well above the seasonal average.
• In Germany, forecasts suggested wind output will be higher from Thursday until Saturday before falling back down. Combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 2.64GW to 22.56GW during base load between 4 and 10 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 17.31GW-26.76GW during peak load on 4-12 July according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is forecast to reach a peak of 63.42GW on Wednesday and of 63.39GW on Thursday according to Entso-E.
• In France, nuclear availability was stable on the day at 69% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• Planned works at 915MW Tricastin 4 have been extended to 14 July, from 5 July previously scheduled. Maintenance started on 19 January.
• The unplanned outage at the 880MW Bugey 5 reactor is scheduled to end on Tuesday at 22:30CET. Planned works at the 880MW Bugey 4 reactor have been extended by two days until 6 July.
• French power demand is forecast at reach 51.64GW on Wednesday and to reach a maximum of 50.38GW on Thursday, Entso-E data showed.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures have been revised up to be broadly in line with normal on 4-6 July, dip below normal on 7 July before rising well above the average from 8 July.
• In France, forecasts suggested wind output at 1.87GW-8.19GW during base load on 4-12 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 4.97GW-8.58GW during peak load on 4-12 July according to SpotRenewables.
• The IFA 1 Tourbe-Dædalus interconnector reported an unplanned outage until Wednesday 22:59 CET with no capacity flowing in either direction. The outage started 2 July 07:07am CET.