German Curve Pulls Back

The German power curve is pulling back amid losses in the wider European energy complex. Forecasts for German wind output have been revised down for the next seven days.

• France Base Power AUG 24 down 4.7% at 45.16 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.3% at 75.51 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.3% at 70.56 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.6% at 32.49 EUR/MWh
• TTF front month falls down to the low of €32.3/MWh from June 10 with stable supplies and temperatures in NW Europe holding near to normal.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is edging lower this morning with lower European gas prices and sluggish industrial data out of Germany. German factory orders unexpectedly fell in May – suggesting a setback to the recovery of the German economy. The next EU EUA auction will clear today 11:00am CET.
• In Germany, forecasts for wind output have been revised down. Combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 2.41GW to 18.876GW during base load between 5 and 11 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 17.22GW-27.85GW during peak load on 5-13 July according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is forecast to reach a peak of 63.39GW on Thursday and of 62.75GW on Friday according to Entso-E.
• In France, nuclear availability was stable on the day at 69% of capacity as of Thursday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• French power demand is forecast to reach a maximum of 50.38GW on Thursday and of 50.24GW on Friday Entso-E data showed.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures have been revised lower at the end of the forecast period to near the seasonal normal. Temperatures are forecast to dip below normal on 7 July before rising above the seasonal normal for the rest of the forecast period.
• In France, forecasts suggested wind output at 1.14GW-6.47GW during base load on 4-12 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 4.34GW-9.18GW during peak load on 5-13 July according to SpotRenewables.
• The unplanned outage at the 1.014GW IFA 1 Tourbe-Dædalus interconnector has been extended by one day until 4 July 22:59 CET, remit data showed.