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GERMAN DATA: IFO Employment Falls Further in August, Weak Manufacturing

GERMAN DATA

The IFO Employment Barometer declined for the third consecutive time in August, indicating that the softening in the German labour market suggested by recent hard data is set to continue. Specifically in the manufacturing sector, employment prospects are deteriorating further, so previous employment declines in the sector seem likely to intensify.

  • The overall index value declined by 0.5 points to 94.8 in August - the lowest value since February. 
  • Across sectors, developments were again a bit mixed. Respective diffusion balances in manufacturing and trade fell further, by 3.8p to -13.9 and by 1.8p to -16.8. Construction saw some positive developments, reaching expansionary territory for the first time since May 2023 (+0.7p to 0.3), while services broadly stagnated, coming in at 2.7 points.
  • In the trade industry, the barometer fell amid "a lack of customers in stores" - this would be in line with our view that data points towards weak summer retail sales ('Q2 GDP Methodology Reinforces Weak Retail Sales Signal', August 28).
  • The positive hiring trend in the services sector "applies in particular to the IT sector and tourism".

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