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GERMAN DATA: MNI Projects 2.3% Y/Y National CPI, Core CPI 2.9-3.0%

GERMAN DATA

From state-level data that equates to 89.1% weighting of the national July flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) rose by around 0.3% M/M (June 0.1%) and 2.3% Y/Y (June 2.2%).

  • Analyst consensus currently stands at 2.2% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M, so there are some upside risks here.
  • Current tracking of Core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies around 2.9-3.0% Y/Y (2.9% in June) and 0.3-0.4% M/M (0.3% in June).
  • We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at underlying drivers in due course.
  • Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP  print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The  magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the  different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the  direction of the surprise is normally the same.
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