German Day-Ahead Hourly Delivery Above €180/MWh for Second Session

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts rose on the day as wind forecasts in both countries for tomorrow point to low wind, with hourly prices in Germany climbing above €180/MWh for the second consecutive session. Higher load factors of wind in France are expected on 19 July compared to Germany, coupled with stable nuclear generation – this could lead France to remain at a discount to Germany

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €90.74/MWh from €76.38/MWh on the previous day.
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €82.02/MWh from €74.27/MWh on the previous day.
• The hourly prices in Germany reached as high as €184.46/MWh for hour 21-22 up from €143.47/MWh for the same hour in the previous session. The highest hourly price for 17 July delivery was at €187.95/MWh for hour 20-21.
• German wind is expected at 1.68-2.38GW, or just 3-4% load factors over 18-19 July and will slightly rise from the weekend to be at a 15% load factor on 22 July (Monday), according to SpotRenewables– possibly supporting prices from the low demand weekend period.
• German power demand over 18-21 July has been relatively unchanged on the day, with the forecast on 18 July anticipated to be around 175MW lower. Demand is forecasted between 41.6-53.11GW over the period.
• In contrast, French wind output is expected at 1.42GW, or just a 7% load factor on 18 July, before decreasing to a 6% load factor the next day, according to spot renewables– which may place upward pressure on costs.
• French nuclear availability rose to 71% as of Wednesday morning, up from 68% Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• EdF’s 1.3GW Nogent 1 and 900MW Tricastin 4 nuclear unit returned to the grid, with the 1.33GW Flamanville2 outage still extended to 30 August from 1 August, Bbg data show.
• French power demand has also been revised lower by a total of around 500MW over 18-21 July, with demand forecasted between 38.7-45GW over the period, Bloomberg data show.