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German Day-Ahead Hourly Delivery Climbs Above €180/MWh.

POWER

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts rose on the day as wind forecasts in both countries for tomorrow point to low wind, with hourly prices in Germany climbing above €180/MWh. However, higher load factors of wind in France are expected on 12 July compared to Germany – which could lead to a divergence of day-ahead prices and widen the French-German discount.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €91.27/MWh from €79.01/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €78.42/MWh from €67.98/MWh on the previous day.
  • The hourly prices in Germany reached as high as €184.33/MWh for hour 20-21 up from €148.61/MWh for the same hour in the previous session.
  • French wind output is expected at 1.54GW, or just an 8% load factor on 11 July, before increasing to a 22% load factor the next day, according to spot renewables– which may place downward pressure on cost for delivery on 12 July.
  • France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 68% of capacity on Wednesday – mostly unchanged from the previous session.
  • EdF has extended the outage at the Nogent 1, Bugey 4 and Tricastin 4 reactors.
  • French power demand has been revised slightly higher by around 150MW over 11-12 July and is now estimated between 44.4-45.2GW over the period, Bloomberg data show. Demand will drop sharply over the weekend to be between 37.4-39.4GW – possibly weighing down prices.
  • Average temperatures in Paris will be between 17.2-24.8C over 10-19 July, with temperatures over 10-12 July revised up between 0.9-1.6C on the day.
  • In contrast, German wind is expected at 4.5GW, or just 7% load factors over 11-12 July and will drop from the weekend to be at a 5% load factor on 15 July (Monday) – possibly supporting prices from the low demand weekend period.
  • German power demand over 11-12 July has also been slightly revised higher on the day, with demand forecasted between 52.2-53.5GW over the period.
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts rose on the day as wind forecasts in both countries for tomorrow point to low wind, with hourly prices in Germany climbing above €180/MWh. However, higher load factors of wind in France are expected on 12 July compared to Germany – which could lead to a divergence of day-ahead prices and widen the French-German discount.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €91.27/MWh from €79.01/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €78.42/MWh from €67.98/MWh on the previous day.
  • The hourly prices in Germany reached as high as €184.33/MWh for hour 20-21 up from €148.61/MWh for the same hour in the previous session.
  • French wind output is expected at 1.54GW, or just an 8% load factor on 11 July, before increasing to a 22% load factor the next day, according to spot renewables– which may place downward pressure on cost for delivery on 12 July.
  • France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 68% of capacity on Wednesday – mostly unchanged from the previous session.
  • EdF has extended the outage at the Nogent 1, Bugey 4 and Tricastin 4 reactors.
  • French power demand has been revised slightly higher by around 150MW over 11-12 July and is now estimated between 44.4-45.2GW over the period, Bloomberg data show. Demand will drop sharply over the weekend to be between 37.4-39.4GW – possibly weighing down prices.
  • Average temperatures in Paris will be between 17.2-24.8C over 10-19 July, with temperatures over 10-12 July revised up between 0.9-1.6C on the day.
  • In contrast, German wind is expected at 4.5GW, or just 7% load factors over 11-12 July and will drop from the weekend to be at a 5% load factor on 15 July (Monday) – possibly supporting prices from the low demand weekend period.
  • German power demand over 11-12 July has also been slightly revised higher on the day, with demand forecasted between 52.2-53.5GW over the period.