German, French Day-Ahead Hourly Deliveries Flip Negative

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts fell on the day, with some hourly delivery prices in Germany and France negative compared to none in the previous session, as lower demand outweighed support from relatively low wind in both countries. France could be at a discount to Germany going into next week amid stronger load factors of wind over 22-23 July.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €61.99/MWh from €85.90/MWh on the previous day.
  
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €52.36/MWh from €78.58/MWh on the previous day.
• The hourly prices in Germany reached as low as €-4.65/MWh for hour 12-13 down from €44.34/MWh for the same hour in the previous session.
• In comparison, hourly prices in France dropped between €-0.01/MWh and €95.24/MWh compared to €39.84-121.22/MWh in the previous session.
• German wind is expected at 4.79GW on 20 July and will rise from the weekend to be between 10-14% load factors over 22-23 July (Monday-Tuesday). Wind will then pick up the next day to a 15% load factor – which could weigh on prices from the previous day.
• German power demand over 20-22 July has been revised up by around 300MW on the day, with demand forecasted between 41.4-51.6GW over the period- down from 51.8GW forecast for today, ECMWF shows.
• In France, wind forecast point to output at 2.09GW on 20 July, remaining firm from the weekend to be at 18-20% load factors over 22-23 July - likely placing the FR day-ahead at a discount to DE.
• And France's nuclear reactors were stable on the day at around 71% of capacity on Friday, according to TSO RTE.
• With EdF still anticipated to end its curtailment at its 915MW Tricastin 4 nuclear reactor, with the unit fully online on 21 July.