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German-French Day-Ahead Premium Remains Firm

POWER

CWE day-ahead base-load contracts fell on the day amid reduced power demand over the weekend – with German-French baseload premium only slightly narrowing on the day as wind forecasts still point to low wind. Solar output is expected to drop early next week in Germany from 7 June – possibly supporting prices.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €45.97/MWh, down from €83.15/MWh in the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot closed at just €20.22/MWh from €56.90/MWh in the previous day.
  • This placed the German-French baseload premium at €25.75/MWh from €26.25/MWh in the previous session.
  • German wind generation is anticipated at an 18% load factor, or 11.76GW, on 8 June – unchanged on the day, with French wind at a 14% load factor, or 2.76GW on the same day – also unchanged on the day.
  • Further out, on 10 June, German wind output is forecast to peak at 16.30GW at 14:00 CET, compared with a high of 11.07GW at 16:00 on Friday: Bloomberg model.
  • And German solar output on same day is seen peaking at 26.79GW at 12:00 CET, compared with a high of 36.22GW at 13:00on 7 June: Bloomberg model.
  • But cooler conditions are expected across much of Europe next week, with temperatures rising sharply in about 10 days, according to Weather Services International.
  • German power demand is forecast to average between 38-63GW over 10-11 June from 41-62GW on 7 June, data from Entso-E show. Demand over 8-9 June is anticipated between 34-51GW.
  • A similar demand trend is also seen in France.
  • But French nuclear generation is at its lowest since 2 June, according to daily average data from RTE.
  • Generation was 40.21GW at 8:30 a.m. CET vs 5-day mvg avg of 39.49GW, according to RTE.
  • French wind generation is anticipated at 18% load factor, or 3.6GW over 9 June before rising to 19%, or 3.83GW on 10 June. Solar is expected between 13-19% load factors over 8-10 June, or 2.38-3.59GW.
  • Power supply could also be limited on 14 June amid France’s CGT union filing a strike notice for the period between 14 June and 13 September to revise salary scales in the energy sector.
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