German, French Sept Power Decline

CWE front-month power contracts are pulling back today, after a choppy session on Monday amid volatility in the natural gas markets amid ongoing supply risks.

• France Base Power SEP 24 down 1.3% at 61 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power SEP 24 down 0.5% at 90.65 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.1% at 72.73 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 down 0.7% at 39.395 EUR/MWh
• TTF front month has pulled back from a high of €42.9/MWh yesterday with Europe fundamentals unchanged despite supply risks from Ukraine and Middle East conflicts.
• EU ETS Dec24 is trading rangebound so far this morning after a choppy session yesterday, with prices rising to an intraday high of €74.13/ton CO2e, driven by a rally in natural gas markets. The next EU EUA CAP 3 auction will clear at 11:00CET today.
• In Germany, wind output is forecast at 4.53GW during base load on Wednesday, down from 7.36GW forecast for Tuesday. Solar PV output is forecast to decline on Wednesday to 12.71GW during base-load hours, down from 14.57GW forecast for Tuesday.
• German power demand is forecast to peak at 61.86GW on Tuesday and at 61.83GW on Wednesday according to Entso-E.
• In Switzerland, Axpo’s 365MW Beznau 1 nuclear reactor has returned back online on Monday evening after a brief unplanned outage.
• French nuclear availability declined to 73% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, down from 76% on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• EdF is cutting nuclear generation at the St Alban, Bugey, Tricastin and Golfech nuclear plants this week amid forecasts for high temperatures at the Garonne and Rhone rivers.
• 915MW Tricastin 2 has shut down in an unplanned outage until Tuesday 23:00 CET, after which the reactor will shut down for two days for planned works.
• Planned maintenance at 910MW Gravelines 4 have been extended on Monday by six days until 23 August. The reactor came offline on 20 January.
• In France, wind output is forecast to rise on the day on Wednesday to 2.05GW during base-load hours, up from 1.74GW forecast for Tuesday. Solar PV output is forecast to decline on Wednesday to 2.25GW during base load, up from 3.4GW forecast for Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
• The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been slightly revised up at the start of the forecast period. Temps will remain above the seasonal normal until 17 Aug, after which they will drop below normal until 20 Aug, before rising back up to just above the 30-year normal.
• Power demand in France is forecast at a maximum of 51.77GW on Tuesday and of 50.60GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
• France’s net power exports to Belgium are scheduled at 2.58GW on Tuesday, to Germany at 1.04GW and to Italy at 2.68GW. France’s net power imports from Switzerland are scheduled at 342MW on Tuesday.