German Front Month Rises on Energy Complex

German front month power is trading higher today amid gains in European gas prices and carbon allowances. Forecasts suggested cooler weather for NW Europe in the first week of July.

• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 1.8% at 78.07 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 2.1% at 68.91 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 up 1.3% at 34.92 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal AUG 24 down 0.1% at 107 USD/MT
• Front month TTF is edging higher but below the high of €35.4/MWh with cool weather in NW Europe this week and steady fundamentals set against import supply risks.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is trading higher today to the highest since 26 June amid gains in European gas prices. The next EU EUA auction will clear today 11:00am CET.
• France’s National Rally has won a historic victory in the first round of voting in France’s snap parliamentary elections, with the far-right receiving 33% of the votes.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested temperatures will remain below the seasonal normal until 7 July, when temperatures will rise well above normal for the remainder of the forecast period.
• In Germany, combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 5.71GW to 19.16GW during base load in the next seven days. Solar PV output is forecast at 14.36GW to 26.6GW during peak load between 2-10 July according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is forecast to reach a peak of 62.78GW on Monday and of 63.12GW on Tuesday according to Entso-E.
• In France, nuclear availability declined to 69% as of Monday morning, down from 70% as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• Maintenance at the 915MW Tricastin reactor has been shortened with the reactor to return on 2 July, from 17 July previously scheduled, remit data showed late on Friday.
• French power demand is forecast at a maximum of 50.61GW on Monday and rise further to a peak of 51.19GW on Tuesday, Entose-E data showed.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures are forecast to be below normal until 4 July, broadly in line with the seasonal norm on 4-7 July, and rising back up above normal for the remainder of the forecast period. Maximum temperatures are forecast to reach 30.7C on 9 July.
• In France, forecasts suggested wind output at 1.55GW-6.08GW during base load on 2-10 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 4.45GW-7.88GW during peak load between 2-10 July according to SpotRenewables.