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German July Eyes 4% Weekly Fall

POWER

Germany July power base load is edging lower today, amid small losses in the wider energy complex, while tracking a weekly net decline of above 4%. The French front month is on track to rose more than 25% above last Friday’s close as hotter weather is spurring cooling demand.

    • France Base Power JUL 24 up 0.1% at 51 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power JUL 24 down 0.6% at 72.7 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 down 0.1% at 69.17 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas JUL 24 down 0.4% at 34.335 EUR/MWh
  • TTF is bouncing between €33.9 and €35.9/MWh with demand supported by warm weather set against the easing of LNG supply risks with the potential restart of Australia Wheatstone LNG soon.
  • EU ETS Dec 24 is edging slightly lower today with downward pressure from European gas prices. The next EUA DE CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Forecasts for German wind output have been revised up for next week with output at 2.67GW to 17.24GW during base load between 22-29 June. Solar PV output is forecast at 11.89GW-26.75GW during peak load between 22-30 June according to SpotRenewables.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall to maximum of 52.94GW on Saturday, down from a peak of 63.15GW on Friday.
  • French nuclear availability declined to 68% on Friday morning, down from 70% as of Thursday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 880MW Bugey 5 nuclear reactor had an unplanned outage Friday morning and is scheduled to be offline for 24h.
  • French power demand is forecast to reach a maximum 44.29GW on Saturday, down from a peak of 47.97GW on Friday according to Entso-E.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures have been revised down slightly for this weekend with temperatures broadly in line with the seasonal normal until 23 June, before rising above normal. Maximum temperatures in Paris are forecast to reach around 25C on 25 June.
  • Forecasts suggested wind output at 2.36GW – 6.3GW during base load on 22-30 June. Solar PV output in France is forecast at 5.19GW to 7.69GW during peak load on 22-30 June according to SpotRenewables.

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