German Sept Power Edges Higher

German front-month power base load is edging higher with gains in natural gas prices and carbon allowances this morning. Liquidity in the European power markets may be reduced from Thursday amid the Assumption of Mary holiday in parts of CWE.

• Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 1% at 91.23 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.7% at 71.78 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 up 0.8% at 39.795 EUR/MWh
• France Base Power SEP 24 closed up 2.7% at 63.52 EUR/MWh on Tuesday.
• TTF front month is edging higher but has stabilised between around €38.7/MWh and €40.4/MWh yesterday with supplies to Europe steady despite the supply risks from Ukraine/Russia and Middle East conflicts.
• EU ETS Dec24 is edging higher on Wednesday morning amid gains in natural gas prices. The next Polish EUA CAP 3 auction will clear at 11:00CET today.
• In Germany, wind output is forecast to edge higher to 5.36GW during base load on Thursday, from 4.53GW forecast for Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 12.95GW during base load on Thursday, up from 12.71GW forecast for Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
• German power demand is forecast to peak at 61.83GW on Wednesday and at 56.96GW on Thursday according to Entso-E.
• In France, nuclear availability increased to 75% as of Wednesday morning, up from 73% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• EdF is cutting nuclear generation at the St Alban, Bugey and Tricastin nuclear plants this week amid forecasts for high temperatures at the Rhone river.
• In France, wind output is forecast to edge slightly higher on Thursday to 2.31GW during base load, up from 2.05GW forecast for Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast to increase to 3.68GW during base load on Thursday, up from 2.25GW forecast for Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
• The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have significantly revised down with temperatures to remain above and near the 30-year normal from 18 August until 23 August.
• Power demand in France is forecast at a maximum of 50.60GW on Wednesday and of 43.61GW on Thursday, as Assumption of Mary holiday is in France is weighing on demand.
• France’s net power exports to Belgium are scheduled at 3.39GW on Wednesday, up from 2.58GW on Tuesday. To Germany, net exports are scheduled 1.04GW, unchanged on the day. Net exports to Italy are scheduled at 2.22GW, down from 2.68GW scheduled for Tuesday. France’s net power imports from Switzerland are scheduled at 700MW, compared with 342MW on Tuesday.