Germany July Power Rallies

German July power base load is rallying, following gains in European gas and carbon allowances, widening the spread to the French equivalent amid smaller gains in the French market.

• France Base Power JUL 24 up 2.3% at 45.6 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power JUL 24 up 5.5% at 83.75 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 1.8% at 75.4 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas JUL 24 up 4.3% at 35.705 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal JUL 24 up 1.2% at 123 USD/MT
• TTF front month has jumped up to a high of €36.365/MWh amid unplanned Norwegian pipeline supply outages while LNG imports remain low. Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down at 251mcm/d with an unplanned outage at the Nyhamna plant.
• EU ETS DEC 24 is rebounding today amid sharp gains in European gas prices, while the latest TNAC numbers came in slightly higher than previously expectations. The EC published the TNAC on the European carbon market on Saturday with the 2023 number at 1,111,736,535, meaning 266,816,768 will be planed in the MSR over a 12-month period from 1 Sept 24 to 31 Aug 2025.
• Forecasts for wind output in Germany have been revised down for this week. Combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 4.89GW-17.7GW during base load between 4-10 June. Solar PV is expected to remain steadily high at 20.9GW-26.68GW during peak load on 4-12 June according to SpotRenewables.
• German power demand is expected at a maximum of 62.58GW on Monday and of 63.04GW on Tuesday according to Entso-E.
• French nuclear availability has risen back up to 68%, compared with 66% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
• French power demand is forecast to reach a maximum of 49.18GW on Monday and of 49.55GW on Tuesday according to Entso-E.
• The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris has been revised down with temperatures below the seasonal norm for most of the period until 13 June unlikely to boost any demand for cooling. The latest forecast for Marseille, south of France, however, forecasts maximum temperatures from 24.5C to 27C between 4-13 June, likely boosting some demand for electric cooling.
• French wind output forecasts have also been revised lower for this week and are now estimated at 2.1GW to 5.4GW during base load between 4-12 June. Forecasts for solar PV output remained broadly unchanged at 5.29GW to 8.3GW during peak load between 4-13 June according to spotrenewables.