Germany July Tracks Weekly Increase

German July power base load edging lower today amid declines in European gas and carbon allowances, but prices are tracking a weekly net gain from Friday’s close of €71.91/MWh, supported by higher gas prices on the week. Front week power in Germany is edging higher amid a slight downward revision in wind forecasts.

• Germany Base Power JUL 24 down 1.4% at 72.75 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.9% at 66.06 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 1.7% at 34.275 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal JUL 24 down 0.3% at 105 USD/MT
• TTF is holding within yesterday’s range with fundamentals relatively unchanged on the day as healthy storage levels and a cooling weather forecast are set against import supply risks.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is edging higher lower with a decline in natural gas prices. The next DE EUA auction will clear today 11:00am CET.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested temperatures to fall below the seasonal normal on 1-5 July.
• In Germany, forecasts for wind output have been further revised down with combined onshore and offshore wind forecast at 2.91GW-18.20GW during base load between 29 June and 5 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 13.55GW-30.8GW during peak load between 29 June and 7 July according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 62.53GW on Friday and of 53.64GW on Saturday.
• In France, nuclear availability was stable on the day at 70% as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg. EdF on Thursday extended the 910MW Bugey 3 outage by one month until 6 August.
• French power demand is forecast at a maximum of 51.04GW on Friday and is expected to ease back to a maximum of 45.99GW on Saturday according to Entso-E.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures have been revised lower at the start of the forecast. Mean temperatures are forecast to fall below the seasonal norm between 1-4 July, before rising back up slightly but signalling downward trend again at the end of the forecast period. Maximum temperatures in Paris are forecast to hit around 27C on 5 July.
• In France, forecasts suggested wind output at 1.97GW-3.95GW during base load between 29 June and 7 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 4.2GW-7.97GW during peak load between 29 June and 7 July according to SpotRenewables.
• The unplanned outage at the IFA Mandarins-Sellindge 1 interconnector has been extended by one day to now end 28 June 22:59CET.