Release for: April 2018
Survey among 210 analysts between April 3 and April 16, 2018
Source: Center for European Economic Research. ZEW
*Change in Level From Previous Month
Good Normal Bad Balance
Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg
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Current economy
Eurozone 59.6 0.6 38.5 0.3 1.9 -0.9 57.7 1.5
Germany 88.4 -2.8 11.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 87.9 -2.8
United States 80.1 2.5 19.4 -2.5 0.5 0.0 79.6 2.5
Japan 30.1 -1.2 67.9 1.7 2.0 -0.5 28.1 -0.7
United Kingdom 13.3 -0.4 74.4 2.7 12.3 -2.3 1.0 1.9
France 34.8 0.5 60.1 -0.3 5.1 -0.2 29.7 0.7
Italy 10.1 2.7 65.8 -0.7 24.1 -2.0 -14.0 4.7
Improve Unchanged Worse Balance
Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg
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Economic expectations
Eurozone 19.2 -4.8 63.5 - 1.9 17.3 6.7 1.9 -11.5
Germany 11.6 -6.4 68.6 -0.5 19.8 6.9 -8.2 -13.3
United States 16.0 -6.3 64.7 -2.4 19.3 8.7 -3.3 -15.0
Japan 12.5 0.2 78.1 -2.7 9.4 2.5 3.1 -2.3
United Kingdom 6.6 3.2 42.1 -3.5 51.3 0.3 -44.7 2.9
France 23.1 -6.5 62.8 -1.3 14.1 7.8 9.0 -14.3
Italy 13.3 1.0 60.7 -9.3 26.0 8.3 -12.7 -7.3
Rise Unchanged Decline Balance
Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg
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CPI
Eurozone 51.7 -5.2 47.3 7.0 1.0 -1.8 50.7 -3.4
Germany 55.0 -6.6 44.0 8.8 1.0 -2.2 54.0 -4.4
United States 74.9 1.6 24.1 -1.7 1.0 0.1 73.9 1.5
Japan 24.7 -5.8 74.3 6.3 1.0 -0.5 23.7 -5.3
United Kingdom 56.7 4.2 32.0 -5.4 11.3 1.2 45.4 3.0
France 50.0 -5.4 48.0 5.4 2.0 0.0 48.0 -5.4
Italy 47.4 -2.1 50.0 3.0 2.6 -0.9 44.8 -1.2
Short-term interest rates
Eurozone 17.5 2.3 82.0 -2.3 0.5 0.0 17.0 2.3
United States 91.7 2.5 7.8 -2.5 0.5 0.0 91.2 2.5
Japan 10.0 4.0 89.5 -4.5 0.5 0.5 9.5 3.5
United Kingdom 59.7 6.6 35.1 -8.3 5.2 1.7 54.5 4.9
Long-term interest rates
Germany 70.7 2.8 28.8 -1.9 0.5 -0.9 70.2 3.7
United States 81.1 2.1 18.9 -1.2 0.0 -0.9 81.1 3.0
Japan 25.8 -0.0 73.7 0.0 0.5 0.0 25.3 0.0
United Kingdom 69.4 4.1 28.0 -4.2 2.6 0.1 66.8 4.0
Stock market prices
Eurozone 55.2 -1.0 33.3 1.8 11.5 -0.8 43.7 -0.2
Germany(DAX) 57.1 -2.5 31.9 6.8 11.0 -4.3 46.1 1.8
Germany(NEMAX50) 54.9 -1.8 33.7 4.5 11.4 -2.7 43.5 0.9
United States 47.0 - 4.8 38.0 9.1 15.0 -4.3 32.0 -0.5
Japan 45.2 -5.1 44.6 7.7 10.2 -2.6 35.0 -2.5
United Kingdom 30.4 -0.0 42.7 6.3 26.9 -6.3 3.5 6.3
France 45.8 -8.0 42.9 10.8 11.3 -2.8 34.5 -5.2
Italy 36.2 -3.1 45.4 9.3 18.4 -6.2 17.8 3.1
Appreciation Unchanged Depreciation Balance
Exchange rates
vs euro(1) Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg
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US Dollar 46.7 2.0 32.8 -0.2 20.5 -1.8 26.2 3.8
Yen 12.2 -3.3 77.7 4.0 10.1 -0.7 2.1 -2.6
British Pound 10.7 0.6 48.9 5.0 40.4 -5.6 -29.7 6.2
Swiss Franc 11.0 -2.7 76.0 3.3 13.0 -0.6 -2.0 -2.1
Crude oil prices 22.8 4.2 56.6 -7.9 20.6 3.7 2.2 0.5
Improve Unchanged Worse Balance
Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg Level Chg
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Germany Sectors
Banks 29.3 -1.6 48.3 2.4 22.4 -0.8 6.9 -0.8
Insurances 23.6 -6.4 56.3 9.3 20.1 -2.9 3.5 -3.5
Vehicle industry 17.9 0.5 60.7 1.5 21.4 -2.0 -3.5 2.5
Chemical ind. 34.9 0.2 59.3 -2.2 5.8 2.0 29.1 -1.8
Steel industry 15.7 2.5 60.5 10.2 23.8 -12.7 -8.1 15.2
Electrical ind. 20.6 -11.7 74.1 10.8 5.3 0.9 15.3 -12.6
Machinery ind. 39.0 -9.0 53.3 7.4 7.7 1.6 31.3 -10.6
Consumer gds/retail 52.9 -0.4 41.9 0.1 5.2 0.3 47.7 -0.7
Construction 58.2 -0.6 36.6 -0.2 5.2 0.8 53.0 -1.4
Utilities 18.1 -7.9 73.8 9.2 8.1 -1.3 10.0 -6.6
Service Sector 38.4 1.4 58.7 -2.6 2.9 1.2 35.5 0.2
Telecommunication 19.3 -3.3 76.0 3.6 4.7 -0.3 14.6 -3.0
Info Technology 56.7 -1.6 42.1 3.2 1.2 -1.6 55.5 0.0
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negative balance indicates an expected depreciation and the currency vs
the euro. A positive an appreciation
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAGDT$,M$E$$$,M$G$$$,M$X$$$]
