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Gilt Week Ahead

  • The upcoming week will see more volatile but more timely data released following last week's confirmation of the size of the fall in output in Q2.
  • Inflation data on Wednesday is unlikely to be market moving for anything other than linkers with the BoE unlikely to react to any near-term surprises.
  • Retail sales on Friday will give us the best indication yet of the state of consumption in July. The early economic consensus is only looking for a 0.2% M/M gain for the ex-fuel measure which might seem a little low given the "Super Saturday" lockdown reversals seen on 4th July.
  • Friday will also see flash PMI data released for August. These will be interesting to watch as local lockdowns in the North West, quarantines on returning travellers from Europe and a generally worsening of the Covid picture across Europe potentially impact the numbers. The early consensus looks for numbers largely unchanged from those seen in July.
  • There are no scheduled MPC members speaking this week.

Auction previews for the week ahead are in the PDF document.

For the full document see: https://emedia.marketnews.com/GiltWeekAhead17082020a.pdf

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