September 16, 2024 07:15 GMT
GILTS: Bid At The Open, Local Risks Back To The Fore This Week
GILTS
Gilts open a little higher, alongside global peers, but futures remain comfortably within Thursday’s range, last +22 at 101.28.
- Technicals remain bullish, initial resistance at the Sep 12 high (101.51), initial support at the Sep 10 high (100.64).
- Yields 1-2bp lower across the curve, light bull steepening.
- SONIA futures flat to +2.5, back from session highs, while BoE-dated is roughly in line with pre-gilt open levels, covered earlier.
- Feedthrough from Fed pricing swings continue to dominate, although this week’s tier 1 UK risk events will see local drivers reassert themselves, with the latest BoE decision (Thursday) and CPI data (Wednesday) due.
- Late Friday saw J.P.Morgan recommend entering tactical 10-Year swap spread narrowers, given their expectations for an uptick in the pace of BoE QT, flatness of the 10-/30-Year swap spread curve & valuations vs. SONIA.
- In local news, a group of leading economists warned Chancellor Reeves that cuts to public investment would damage the foundations of economy. No surprise there but the comments reaffirm the “difficult” choices Labour faces in the upcoming Budget.
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