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GILTS: Eying Wider Moves In Bonds, Next Week's Event Risk Into View

GILTS

Gilts continue to follow global peers.

  • Futures stick comfortably within yesterday’s range after failing to close the early opening gap higher during a pullback.
  • Futures last trade at 101.08 vs. session lows of 101.00.
  • Yields 0.5-1.5bp lower on the day, curve a touch flatter.
  • SONIA futures last unch. to +3.5, off session highs.
  • BoE-dated OIS showing ~49bp of cuts through year-end and ~135bp of cuts through June ’25.
  • Although spill over from Fed pricing remains a key driver, this week’s local labour market data didn’t hinder the odds of further BoE cuts, while GDP data came in on the soft side, aiding the dovish move.
  • U.S. UoM sentiment data could have some impact shortly (due 15:00 London).
  • Further out, the latest BoE decision (Thursday) and CPI data (Wednesday) dominate next week’s UK calendar, while the key macro risk event will come in the form ff the latest Fed policy decision (with event risk heightened after yesterday’s dovish press reports). 
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Gilts continue to follow global peers.

  • Futures stick comfortably within yesterday’s range after failing to close the early opening gap higher during a pullback.
  • Futures last trade at 101.08 vs. session lows of 101.00.
  • Yields 0.5-1.5bp lower on the day, curve a touch flatter.
  • SONIA futures last unch. to +3.5, off session highs.
  • BoE-dated OIS showing ~49bp of cuts through year-end and ~135bp of cuts through June ’25.
  • Although spill over from Fed pricing remains a key driver, this week’s local labour market data didn’t hinder the odds of further BoE cuts, while GDP data came in on the soft side, aiding the dovish move.
  • U.S. UoM sentiment data could have some impact shortly (due 15:00 London).
  • Further out, the latest BoE decision (Thursday) and CPI data (Wednesday) dominate next week’s UK calendar, while the key macro risk event will come in the form ff the latest Fed policy decision (with event risk heightened after yesterday’s dovish press reports).