MNI BRIEF: Canada Commits To Just One Of Three Fiscal Anchors

MNI BRIEF: German Insolvency Rate Slows, 2025 Pickup Expected

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

GILTS: Fresh Support Following North American Data, CPI Now Eyed

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Futures to fresh session highs of 96.80 following the North American data covered earlier, but initial resistance at the Oct 7 high (96.93) remains untouched.

  • Yields 3-7bp lower across the curve, bull flattening noted all day.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows 22bp of cuts for November, 35bp of easing through December (~40% odds of back-to-back 25bp cuts to end the year) and 103bp of cuts through June, little changed to ~5bp more dovish on the day through the liquid contracts.
  • SONIA futures -0.5 to +6.5, with many of the contracts registering fresh session highs alongside gilts.
  • Multi-week ranges remain intact in GBP STIRs, with today’s move merely fading a little of the hawkish repricing seen since the latest U.S. NFP release.
  • Domestic focus is on tomorrow’s CPI data, which is set to be more consequential for monetary policy than today’s labour market readings.
  • The MPC will watch the data closely - particularly following Governor Bailey’s comments noting that the BoE could be “a bit more activist” if the good news surrounding inflation continues.
  • Our full data preview can be found here.
172 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Futures to fresh session highs of 96.80 following the North American data covered earlier, but initial resistance at the Oct 7 high (96.93) remains untouched.

  • Yields 3-7bp lower across the curve, bull flattening noted all day.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows 22bp of cuts for November, 35bp of easing through December (~40% odds of back-to-back 25bp cuts to end the year) and 103bp of cuts through June, little changed to ~5bp more dovish on the day through the liquid contracts.
  • SONIA futures -0.5 to +6.5, with many of the contracts registering fresh session highs alongside gilts.
  • Multi-week ranges remain intact in GBP STIRs, with today’s move merely fading a little of the hawkish repricing seen since the latest U.S. NFP release.
  • Domestic focus is on tomorrow’s CPI data, which is set to be more consequential for monetary policy than today’s labour market readings.
  • The MPC will watch the data closely - particularly following Governor Bailey’s comments noting that the BoE could be “a bit more activist” if the good news surrounding inflation continues.
  • Our full data preview can be found here.