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GILTS: Futures Through Resistance Following European PMIs, Nov Extremes Now Eyed

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilts also draw support from the softer-than-expected run of European PMI data, pushing futures through initial resistance at the 20-day EMA (94.40).

  • Focus now moves to the November 1 high (94.73).
  • A break there would negate some of the recent bearish pressure.
  • Contract last +55 at 94.60.
  • Yields 5-6bp lower, light bull steepening of the curve.
  • 10s test November lows of 4.381%.
  • SONIA futures flat to +6.5. Some of the red and all the green and blue contracts move to the highest levels of the month.
  • BoE-dated OIS now priced 20.5bp of cuts through February, 30bp of cuts through March, 53bp through June and 76bp through December ’25.
  • A reminder that December ’25 pricing hovered around 60bp of cuts as recently as Wednesday.
  • UK flash PMIs due in ~10 minutes, with particular focus on the price readings from the services sector, as we outlined earlier.

BoE Meeting

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Gilts also draw support from the softer-than-expected run of European PMI data, pushing futures through initial resistance at the 20-day EMA (94.40).

  • Focus now moves to the November 1 high (94.73).
  • A break there would negate some of the recent bearish pressure.
  • Contract last +55 at 94.60.
  • Yields 5-6bp lower, light bull steepening of the curve.
  • 10s test November lows of 4.381%.
  • SONIA futures flat to +6.5. Some of the red and all the green and blue contracts move to the highest levels of the month.
  • BoE-dated OIS now priced 20.5bp of cuts through February, 30bp of cuts through March, 53bp through June and 76bp through December ’25.
  • A reminder that December ’25 pricing hovered around 60bp of cuts as recently as Wednesday.
  • UK flash PMIs due in ~10 minutes, with particular focus on the price readings from the services sector, as we outlined earlier.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less