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GILTS: Modest Outperformance For Gilts vs. Bunds On Latest Fiscal Speculation

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Signs of more modest adjustments to UK fiscal policy promote light outperformance for gilts vs. Bunds today, with the 10-Year spread in to 193bp.

  • We provided greater colour on the apparent watering down of some of the more controversial fiscal measures earlier today.
  • Fiscal headlines will continue to dominate ahead of the UK Budget, due 30 October.
  • Monday’s cycle closing wide (195.24bp) provides the initial point of upside interest in the spread, ahead of the 200bp mark and the cluster of summer ’23 closing highs (topped by the August ’23 high 205.35bp).
  • Meanwhile, those favouring tighteners will initially look for a move back below the Dec ’23 closing high (183.99bp).

Fig. 1: 10-Year Gilt/Bund Spread (bp)

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Signs of more modest adjustments to UK fiscal policy promote light outperformance for gilts vs. Bunds today, with the 10-Year spread in to 193bp.

  • We provided greater colour on the apparent watering down of some of the more controversial fiscal measures earlier today.
  • Fiscal headlines will continue to dominate ahead of the UK Budget, due 30 October.
  • Monday’s cycle closing wide (195.24bp) provides the initial point of upside interest in the spread, ahead of the 200bp mark and the cluster of summer ’23 closing highs (topped by the August ’23 high 205.35bp).
  • Meanwhile, those favouring tighteners will initially look for a move back below the Dec ’23 closing high (183.99bp).

Fig. 1: 10-Year Gilt/Bund Spread (bp)

Keep reading...Show less