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Glapinski Stresses Importance Of Core CPI, Says NBP Is Not In Any Rate Cycle

NBP

NBP Governor Adam Glapinski flags core CPI as the main data point that will drive the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council going forward. Headline inflation will largely depend on regulatory decisions and may rise to +6%-8% Y/Y in 2H2024.

  • The official clarifies that based on the information from NBP analysts, inflation is expected to temporarily reach the target (or the tolerance band) in 1Q2024, then rebound in 2H2024. It is still expected to sustainably return to the +2.5% Y/Y +/- 1pp target only around the end of 2025.
  • Glapinski says that the NBP "is not in any cycle" now, pushing back against descriptions of the central bank as being in the midst of a rate-cutting cycle. He notes that monetary policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, adding that he is unable to provide any guidance even for the next meeting.
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