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GoCs Continue To Underperform Tsys As CPI Impact Lingers

CANADA
  • GoCs see a quick rally in recent trade with yields sitting 0-1bp lower on the day, but they continue to underperform Treasuries (1.5-3bps lower) extending yesterday’s sizeable shift at the front-end on stronger than expected CAD CPI.
  • The 2Y Can-US yield differential has narrowed a further 2bps to -16bps having ended last week at -31bps.
  • The BoC minutes from the Sep 6 decision land at 1330ET, partly superseded by Kozicki yesterday who amongst other areas noted the month-to-month volatility of the data when asked about the acceleration in core inflation.
  • Macquarie now call for a 25bp hike next month on the back of the inflation data, despite their view that the economy may have already entered recession and with the u/e rate likely to rise further.
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