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Bullish Price Sequence

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  • Having traded largely horizontally for the bulk of the week, spot gold broke to new September lows Thursday, re-correlating with equities and sending spot gold briefly through $1750/oz. Silver underperformed gold, dropping as much as 4% to boost the gold/silver ratio back toward the best levels of 2021.
  • Dollar strength was the primary catalyst for the downtick in commodities, with the USD Index rising to touch fresh September highs. A better-than-expected set of retail sales for August boosted the dollar, with the data feeding directly into next week's FOMC meeting.
  • Following the sharp rally in oil over the past two weeks, WTI and Brent crude futures edging into negative territory largely on profit-taking and greenback strength. The outlook remains positive, however, with Wednesday highs of $73.14 well within range.