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Goldman Cut 2024 Brent Forecast but See Demand Resilience


Goldman Sachs has cut its Brent forecast for 2024 to 92$/bbl from 98$/bbl due to stronger supply and upside surprises to OECD commercial inventories but expects demand growth to remain robust according to Bloomberg.

  • Higher supply is expected from producers Brazil, Venezuela and Nigeria while heating demand is expected to be lower due to a warm Q4 2023.
  • A modest deficit and easing inventories are forecast for 2024 amid robust demand, slowing US supply growth and low OPEC supply. Demand growth is expected at 2.5m b/d this year followed by an increase of 1.6m b/d in 2024.
  • “This ongoing resilience in demand will contribute to a recovery in oil prices, in our view, although we now look for a lower oil price peak.”

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