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Goldman Sachs Believe BCRP Will Favour Conservative Approach

PERU
  • Following Friday’s CPI print, Goldman Sachs noted that annual inflation continues to descend on the back of favourable base effects, subdued core pressures, and the gradual normalization of food supply.
  • Aided by a restrictive monetary policy stance and a negative output gap, Goldman Sachs expect inflation to decline further. In their view, last week’s data should support the continuation of the normalization of the policy stance at the December MPC meeting.
  • Yet, against an unsettled global backdrop with the expectation of high rates for some time in core economies, lower policy rate differential (both in nominal and real terms) than most central banks in the LA-IT5 space, and the risk of a strong El Niño weather phenomenon, GS believe that the MPC may favour a conservative and gradual approach to normalizing the policy stance, limiting the possibility of an acceleration in the pace of cuts.

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