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Goldman Sachs Expect Current Account Deficit to Improve on Seasonal Factors

TURKEY
June current account data will be released in Turkey tomorrow morning (0800BST/1000 local time). The median of the Bloomberg survey sees the current account balance rising sharply to a small surplus of USD0.30bln in June from a USD7.93bln deficit in May.
  • Goldman Sachs expect the current account balance to improve to a USD0.5bln surplus on seasonal factors and recent monetary tightening.
  • They say that although the upward tax adjustments and the slowdown in loan growth are likely to offset the widening trade deficit in goods moving forward, the gradual unwinding of macroprudential measures and the uncertainty around the funding of the budget can undermine the ability of the CBRT to continue the tightening process.
  • Equally important, they say, is locals’ continued lack of confidence in the TRY which is likely to be aggravated by the recent decline in deposit rates. Furthermore, the uptick in inflation in H2 risks leading to another surge of gold imports, posing significant downside risk to their forecast of a USD38bln deficit for 2023 as a whole.
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