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Goldman Sachs on the Upcoming Inflation Data (16:30GMT)

ISRAEL
  • Goldman Sachs expect inflation to decline further to +3.1% y/y (BBG consensus: +3.1%; Prior: +3.3%). The inflation data collections have been disrupted by the ongoing conflict, although the extent of the disruptions has decreased, they note.
  • The data prints since the Oct 7 attacks have nevertheless showed relatively benign and weak inflation readings, which, together with a significant appreciation of the Shekel and broader reduction in financial stability risks, allowed the Bank of Israel to deliver the first rate cut at the January MPC meeting. Goldman Sachs think that the continuation of relatively benign prints will support further gradual easing by the central bank.
  • That said, GS think that two additional factors are likely to be key for shaping the policy rate outlook going forward: (1) the Shekel has been weakening in recent weeks. The depreciation has been relatively steady, however, if it continues, it could imply that the BoI is more cautious with further rate cuts. (2) The BoI has also been highlighting fiscal policy and the larger fiscal deficit that is expected for this year as a key factor that will determine the extent of easing as well.
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