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Goldman Sachs say USDTRY Should Continue to Outperform Forwards in the Near Term

TRY
  • Goldman Sachs think the CBRT’s policy framework has become clearer and more effective in tightening financial conditions in the broader economy. They say that the more forceful adjustment in rate policy should cause near-term pressures on the currency to ease, adding that the probability that such tightening is sustained has increased. Therefore, their economists now expect the policy rate to reach 40% by year-end.
  • Inflation has risen sharply since the election following the FX weakening and as CPI inflation is brought closer to alternative price measures. As a result, a gradual grind higher in USDTRY in nominal terms is still needed to reflect this increased inflation differential, Goldman Sachs say.
  • However, if policy signals continue to point to a clear commitment to moving real rates to positive territory, USDTRY should continue to outperform the forwards in the near-term, Goldman Sachs say.
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