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Goldman Sachs See Headline Inflation Increasing to 5.2-5.3% y/y in Sept/Oct

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Goldman Sachs say the main surprise to the inflation data came from administered tariff increases for water and, to a lesser extent, electricity, while food and their narrow measure of core goods/services inflation came in somewhat softer than they had assumed.
  • While they see headline inflation increasing in September/October to 5.2-5.3% y/y on fuel prices, they expect core inflation to continue to trend lower in the coming months.
  • Goldman Sachs recently laid out their benign outlook for further disinflation in South Africa next year on the back of a combination of fading supply shocks and a continued absence of demand-side pressures, with their forecast for a decline in inflation from 5.8% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024 well below SARB/consensus of 5.0%/4.9%.
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