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Goldman Sachs Watching Banxico QIR For Signals About Rate Path (1930BST)

MEXICO
  • Banxico will publish its latest quarterly inflation report at 1930BST(1430ET), including updated growth and inflation forecasts and a possible adjustment to the overall growth/inflation balance of risks. These will be interesting in light of recent softer-than-expected macro data, which have been offset somewhat by latest political developments and associated pressure on MXN.
  • Goldman Sachs expects the end-2024 inflation forecast to be revised up compared with the previous QIR, but to still show convergence to target by Q4-2025. On GDP growth, GS expects the 1.9%-2.9% forecast range from the previous QIR to be revised down, particularly at the top end of the range, given recent weaker real activity data.
  • In terms of the monetary policy outlook, GS will pay particular attention to the balance of risks to inflation and growth and ranking of upside and downside risks. They will also be watching for revisions to output gap and labour market slack forecasts, noting that a neutral/negative output gap would give room for Banxico to potentially cut rates at a faster pace.
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