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Goldman's August core CPI estimate of 0.19% M/M unrounded is below-consensus, with their analysis pointing to a pullback in airfares and possibly hotel prices related to the Delta variant".
- Their forecast stands out a little by pointing out "downward pressure on college tuition and ARP Act aid will together produce an outright decline in the education category."
- They will be keeping an eye on the shelter component which is key to "gauge how persistent the inflationary pressures are".