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Pullback Considered Corrective

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Holding Above Recent Lows

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BLOCK, Large 3Y Midcurve Put Condor

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Goldman saw the Aug CPI report as "mixed", with " a likely temporary drag from the Delta variant and car insurance seasonality, but a softer-than-expected rebound in the shelter categories."

  • They also saw further signs of wage pass-through to consumer prices, including in restaurant, personal care, and health care inflation.
  • They see Delta-hit categories including airfares and hotels potentially reversing positive if cases call, and believe that the decline in car insurance prices has run its court.
  • They see a further pickup in shelter categories, "mirroring surging rents in the industry data", plus further strength in new car prices.
  • Goldman estimates that core PCE rose 0.25% in August (3.54% Y/Y).