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Government May Set Zero Fiscal Target For 2025 According To Folha

BRAZIL
  • According to an article in Folha, the government will propose a zero fiscal target for 2025 in the budget guidelines bill to be presented today at 2030BST(1530ET). This would mark a relaxation from the 0.5% of GDP primary surplus that the government was originally targeting and comes in the face of challenges to increasing revenue. The presentation of the budget bill will be followed by a press conference with Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron at 2100BST.
  • The article notes that many of the revenue raising measures this year are extraordinary and will not be repeated next year. It also suggests that some members of the government believe that the revenue agenda is losing momentum. For this year, the fiscal target is also already at zero, although the article implies that the government is still aiming for an improvement from this year to next, with a +/-0.25% of GDP tolerance margin applying to the targets.
  • Amidst ongoing fiscal risks and further greenback strength, the Brazilian real is continuing to underperform today, with BRL ~1.3% weaker against the dollar at the time of writing. A bullish theme in USDBRL remains intact and the recent clearance of the 5.10 handle signals scope for a climb towards 5.2202, the Oct 6 ‘23 high.
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