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Free AccessGovernor Glapinski Appears To Deviate From Broader MPC Consensus
The aftermath of the NBP's monetary policy decision in July (unch. rates & hawkish rhetoric) has seen the market questioning Governor Adam Glapinski's forward guidance, pointing to little potential for a change in rates until 2026. It now seems that most of his colleagues from the MPC are not on the same page and see room for cuts in 2025.
- The table below summarises the most recent publicly made comments on the interest-rate outlook from individual MPC members.
- Market bets on the trajectory of future NBP easing have been further affected by the repricing of Fed rate outlook.
- Meanwhile, today's strong Polish GDP data might lead some to reconsider their views, albeit the Governor's guidance will remain tilted to the hawkish side of expectations.
- We have flagged some doubts over the credibility of the Governor's comments after the last presser (here and here), with some commentators also pointing to the unusually long horizon of his guidance.
Table 1. Comments On Interest-Rate Outlook From Individual MPC Members
| Policymaker | Forward Guidance | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Glapinski | "We can forget about an interest-rate cut while inflation is rising significantly (...) Such a possibility may appear in 2026 at the earliest, when inflation starts to fall." (Press Conference) | July 5 |
| Ireneusz Dabrowski | "The most likely scenario is still that rates remain unchanged until the end of this year and any changes, most likely rate cuts, will only take place in the first or second quarter of next year." (Bloomberg) | August 8 |
| Iwona Duda | "Perhaps the second half of 2025 is the [right] time to start the discussion on cutting interest rates." (Business Insider) | July 22 |
| Wieslaw Janczyk | "I have to confirm [that the government took the possibility of cutting rates away from the MPC by loosening anti-inflation shields] (...) We have positive real interest rates, which I really don't like." (NBP OF TV) | June 17 |
| Cezary Kochalski | "I could imagine a situation where, due to possible risks to inflation, the moment for a decision on possible rate cuts would only appear in 2026. But referring to the July projection and available information, I believe that the space for such a discussion could appear as early as 2025." (PAP) | July 11 |
| Gabriela Maslowska | "I hope (...) that next year conditions will emerge for rates to be lowered rather than for them to have to be raised." (Bloomberg) | June 21 |
| Henryk Wnorowski | "Personally I can see reasons to discuss rate cuts in 2Q2025." (BIZNES24) | July 31 |
| Ludwik Kotecki | "If a scenario of our GDP growth being below +3% Y/Y this year is confirmed, and there are no prospects for any significant acceleration next year, then there will certainly be room for a rate cut at the start of next year." (Money.pl) | August 12 |
| Przemyslaw Litwiniuk | Has not commented on the interest-rate outlook since March. | - |
| Joanna Tyrowicz | "I keep my terminal rate consistently at the same level of 7.75%." (MNI) | June 25 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.