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Greenback Holds Bulk of Post-NFP Rally

FOREX
  • The greenback is strictly mid-table following the European morning, but is holding the bulk of the post-payrolls rally. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are off the overnight lows, with the modest improvement in global equity futures helping drive risk sentiment.
  • Resultingly, USD/JPY is clear of the Friday high, opening resistance at 146.54 and the cycle high after that at 147.37. JPY is the poorest performer so far in G10.
  • GBP is modestly outperforming, helping EUR/GBP extend four days of weakness off last week's high and the failed test of the 100-dma resistance at 0.8632. The move lower opens downside levels at 0.8536 and the late August lows of 0.8493.
  • Friday's CFTC positioning data showed markets trimmed NZD, GBP and AUD positions at the fastest clip in the week ending August 29th, resulting in the AUD net short position swelling to just over 70k contracts, prompting the largest negative 52w Z-score across the currencies surveyed. The trimming of the GBP position on the week (equivalent to 4.7% of open interest) sees the net long fade off a 52w high of 25.9%, a move that coincides with a modest pullback in UK yields - the 10y Gilt yield slipped 22bps to ~4.4% over the survey period.
  • The US market holiday for Labor Day should keep markets muted and price action contained headed through Monday hours. There are no data releases of note, but speeches from ECB's Elderson, Nagel, Panetta and Lagarde should be of market interest.
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