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Greenback Marginally Softer Amid Holiday Thinned Trade

FOREX
  • The USD index is holding onto a very moderate pullback on Monday with G10 currencies holding very tight ranges over the US Labor Day holiday session. GBP is the best performer to start the week, rising 0.35% against the greenback, whereas the likes of NZD and CHF are actually seen a touch weaker.
  • For GBPUSD, despite today’s strength the trend outlook is bearish and short-term gains are considered technically corrective. The recent breach of support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and 1.2591, the Jun 29 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The key bear trigger is at 1.2548, the Aug 25 low.
  • AUSDUSD remains close to unchanged ahead of the RBA rate decision due on Tuesday where the RBA are expected to leave rates at 4.1%. Resistance at the 20-day EMA in AUDUSD has been pierced, but markets look to cement a break before any reversal higher can be confirmed. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6567 - a key resistance.
  • In emerging markets, USDZAR rose 1.5% to trade back above the 19.00 handle with rand sentiment fragile ahead of local data releases this week and lingering fiscal uncertainty as we approach the medium-term budget update on October 25.
  • The Caixin China Services PMI for August will be released before the RBA decision. In Europe, services PMI’s will also be published. US Factory orders is the sole data point in the US session, keeping the focus on Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate decision.
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