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Greenback Weakens Further, USDNOK Extends Weekly Drop To 6.25%

FOREX
  • Further optimism for risk assets on Thursday saw an extension of the building momentum across the currency space this week. The moves have been underpinned by a weaker greenback, with today’s price action leading the USD index (-0.71%) below the 100 mark for the first time since April 2022.
  • In similar price action to Wednesday, Antipodean FX have been the biggest beneficiaries, with both AUD & NZD rising over 1.5% against the greenback. In similar vein, Scandinavian FX has continued to surge. A perfect storm of higher domestic inflation, a softer greenback, elevated oil prices and firmer risk have led USDNOK to fall an impressive 6.25% just this week, declining below 10.00 for the first time since February this year.
  • The short-term outlook for USDCAD has deteriorated Thursday, with spot falling through the horizontal bear trigger drawn off the late June low of 1.3117. Next downside levels in USD/CAD undercut at 1.3084 the 1.618 projection of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing ahead of 50% retracement for the 2021 - 2022 upleg at 1.2992.
  • Hot on the heels of their higher beta counterparts, EURUSD and GBPUSD continue to trade in a bullish manner, grinding above 1.12 and 1.31 respectively. For EURUSD, this represents the highest point since March 2022 and immediate focus is on 1.1211, before a retracement level at 1.1274 and the February 24 2022 high at 1.1313.
  • Given the moves for SEK this week, emphasis is on the June inflation data due on Friday. Elsewhere the docket remains fairly quiet until the latest sentiment and inflation expectations data from the University of Michigan round off the week.
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