MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 25

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MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

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Greenback Weakness Prevails, CHF Weakness Short-Lived

FOREX
  • The greenback has edged lower throughout Thursday’s session, although momentum has been understandably lacking given the US Independence Day holiday. Antipodean currencies remain the outperformers on the session, with AUD and NZD higher against most others in G10. Equity markets have generally consolidated the week’s advance, which continues to support risk more broadly and underpins the greenback consolidation.
  • Elections and political risk remain key, with UK election voting today, and full results expected through the night. An exit poll released at 2200BST/1700ET should give markets a very good idea of the outcome, with a broad and wide Labour party victory and majority expected.
  • In addition, French elections remain a key focus, with the fading likelihood of a right-wing majority helping prop EUR, French bond markets and local equity markets.
  • CHF was initially offered on the back of a soft CPI headline, however one-off factors and single drivers suggested that the step-lower in CPI will not be sustained across the coming months, containing the pullback in the currency. Nonetheless, AUDCHF looks set to extend its winning streak to 13 sessions.
  • Aside from election risk, all focus will be on the release of US non-farm payrolls. With heightened uncertainty around what’s the genuine pace of employment growth, there could be greater focus on the unemployment rate to assess labour market imbalances.
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