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Greene speech due at Midday BST

BOE
  • Just a reminder that we will receive probably the most significant MPC speech of the week from Megan Greene at midday BST (7:00ET), entitled “The current state of Britain’s labour market.” The whole text will not be released, but slides will be available via this link.
  • We think that Greene and Haskel remain the two most hawkish members of the MPC (we suspect Mann is slightly less on the hawkish side based on her previous comments).
  • Any signal that Greene sees less risks of persistence than previously would therefore be significant here. Her vote is unlikely to be needed to reach quorum to cut (irrespective of a June or August first cut) but if she did indicate that she was leaning in a more dovish direction, this would likely see the market increase the probability of near-term cuts. Conversely, if she remains hawkish we are not sure there will be too much of a market reaction.
  • For reference, see a SONIA run of current market pricing (13bp of cut for June, 26bp cumulatively by August and 59bp by year-end).

BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.069-13.1
Aug-244.937-26.3
Sep-244.841-35.9
Nov-244.710-49.0
Dec-244.614-58.7
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